No plan, No Aid? The effects of National Adaptation Plan implementation on received Adaptation Aid

Pierre Beaucoral · Michaël Goujon · Sébastien Marchand

“No Plan, No Aid?” examines whether implementing a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) increases a country’s climate adaptation finance. Through a novel theoretical model and a robust Double Machine Learning (DML) approach, the authors find that NAP adoption does send mixed signals—reducing perceived vulnerability while boosting perceived capacity. Crucially, they find that while traditional econometric models show no impact or even a negative one, modern methods reveal a significant positive effect on adaptation aid.

Preliminary work in progress — full paper and results coming soon.