Wildfire dynamics in Europe, Summer 2025

Why this topic?

As a French researcher, I was particularly struck by the wildfires in Aude this year, as well as those affecting Spain and Portugal. These events prompted me to take a closer look at the geography of fire activity in Europe. My objective was to get a clearer picture of where fires are occurring, when they peak, and how 2025 compares with previous exceptional fire seasons.

What does the data show?

Using EFFIS rapid mapping perimeters (fires ≥ 30–50 ha), the analysis reveals that burn scars are overwhelmingly concentrated in Southern and Eastern Europe, with Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Greece among the most severely affected. France also shows a marked increase compared to previous years, confirming that wildfire risk is extending northward along the Mediterranean arc.

In terms of timing, 2025 fires followed a late-summer pattern. Activity was moderate in June, rose sharply in July, and culminated in August with the largest burned areas, consistent with the idea that prolonged heat and depleted water reserves create peak vulnerability toward the end of the season. Daily counts also reveal three distinct waves of fire activity, in early July, late July, and early August, likely corresponding to short-term climatic triggers such as heatwaves and wind events layered on cumulative dryness.

How does 2025 compare?

To put 2025 in context, I compared it with other major fire years. 2017 remains an important benchmark: Portugal recorded catastrophic losses that year, while Spain also suffered heavily. By contrast, 2025 is dominated by Spain, which surpasses its previous records, while Portugal’s losses are smaller but still substantial. Adding 2022 and 2023 highlights that extreme fire years now recur more frequently, each with its own epicenter, Greece in 2022–2023, Spain in 2025, Portugal in 2017, showing how exposure rotates across the Mediterranean and Balkans under shifting climatic and local conditions.

Limitations

These results are based on EFFIS rapid mapping data and should be read as estimates, not exact totals. National fire statistics may differ due to thresholds, seasonal definitions, or inclusion of smaller fires. Here, “summer” is defined as June–August, which excludes late-season events (e.g., in September), and country attribution is based on maximum overlap, which can misrepresent border regions. The purpose of this work is analytical and exploratory; for operational decisions, official national and European statistics remain the reference.

The blog is available Here