This paper examines the relationship between changes in adaptation aid and the implementation of National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) in recipient countries, using a staggered difference-in-differences (DiD) framework. Adaptation aid, a critical component of climate finance, aims to bolster the resilience of vulnerable nations to climate change impacts. However, empirical evidence on its efficacy in driving policy implementation remains limited. Analyzing adaptation aid registered in the OECD CRS dataset and detailed information on NAP implementation stages across multiple recipient countries, we exploit temporal and cross-country variation in aid to identify signal effects of NAPs. The staggered DiD approach accounts for the heterogeneous timing of aid receipt and of NAP implementation, allowing us to isolate the effects of NAPs while addressing concerns of endogeneity and omitted variable bias. Our findings reveal that NAPs adoption tends to reduce received adaptation aid. These controversial results underscore the importance of recipient strategies and well-targeted aid in achieving global climate adaptation goals and provide critical insights for policymakers and donors seeking to enhance the effectiveness of climate finance mechanisms.
As climate change intensifies, developing countries rely on international adaptation aid to build resilience. National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) were introduced to help nations systematically integrate climate adaptation into their policies. However, our research finds a paradox: adopting a NAP may actually lead to a reduction in adaptation aid.
Using a staggered difference-in-differences (DiD) approach, we analyzed OECD climate finance data and NAP adoption records. Surprisingly, countries that implement a NAP tend to receive less adaptation aid afterward.
Our findings highlight the need for a more strategic and targeted approach to adaptation finance. Instead of reducing aid after NAP adoption, donors should ensure that these plans lead to sustained financial support for long-term climate resilience.
For further insights, read our full paper (available upon requests) on adaptation finance and NAP implementation.
@unpublished{beaucoral2025,
title={No plan, No Aid? The effects of National Adaptation Plan implementation on received Adaptation Aid},
author={Beaucoral, Pierre and Goujon, Michael and Marchand, Sebastien},
year={2025}
}